October Stat-A-Palooza

First half of the month was stellar.

Second half was giving profits back and forth, and ended up negative for the last 2 weeks.

I guess I should be happy that I at least ended the month profitable.  Tomorrow starts a new month and a clean slate.

Stats:
Net Ticks (Pre-Commission): +41
Net Ticks (Post-Commission): +27
Profits Lost to Commission: 34%
Trades:  40
Winning Trades: 17
BE Trades: 7
Ticks/Trade:  +1.03
Win %: 60%

Wow... Commissions absolutely destroyed my bottom line.   The first half of the month I had a 75% hit rate; that dropped 15% in the second half.

As you can see my equity curve made a double top.  As one of my friends pointed out, time to "short" me.

Stats... (Note: these numbers are in "points" which on ES is 4 ticks.  So multiply everything by 4)

Good start to the month, bad end.

It seems like any trading past 1030 is unprofitable for me.  This is definitely something I need to keep an eye on.

Weekly net profit as it plummeted.

31 October 2012

Well, it's been a while since I was able to trade.  Thursday I was at an appointment, Friday I didn't find any good trades, and Monday and Tuesday the markets were closed for the storm.

Today was a sh*t day.

I'm following my plan, and my entries, but it didn't work out today.  One winner.  Just couldn't catch a break.

Stats:
Net Pips: -6
Trades:  4
Winning Trades: 1
Ticks/Trade:  -1.5
Win %:  25%  

25th / 26th October 2012

The 25th I had an afternoon appointment so I didn't trade.

The 26th I just couldn't find a good entry that I liked on ES.

Time for the weekend.

24 October 2012

Started with a small loser, than a decent winner.

Should've called it a day there, had two consecutive losses after that.  The A2 I was jumping in WAY too late on the down trend.  The A0 I was more trying to "win back my money".

All well, not a catastrophic loss.

Stats:
Net Pips: -6
Trades:  4
Winning Trades: 1
Ticks/Trade:  -1.5
Win %:  25%  

23 October 2012

Brought up the charts to see ES had been in free-fall all night.  We're in outer space now so market profile won't be helpful.

Momentum was still down, so looked to take mostly shorts.

Today brought me back up into new equity highs for the month.  Made up for those losing days last week.

Stats:
Net Ticks: +6
Trades:  2
Winning Trades: 2
Ticks/Trade:  +3
Win %: 100%

22 October 2012

First winning day after a losing streak and it was a good one!

Almost got stopped out on both trades, but it worked out in the end.

I need to try to get more winning days this size instead of +6, that way when the losing days come and I hit my daily stop loss limit of -10, it's not so devastating.

Stats:
Net Ticks: +12
Trades:  2
Winning Trades: 2
Ticks/Trade:  +6
Win %: 100% 

19 October 2012

Well, worst day of the month.

Little bit of a losing streak.  I'm up on the month overall.

I don't think I'm doing anything differently, I think it's just a bad time.

Time for the weekend, enjoy.

Stats:
Net Pips: -10
Trades:  2
Winning Trades: 0
Ticks/Trade:  -5
Win %:  0%  

18 October 2012

Another small losing day.

First trade just didn't work out, good thing I moved my stop, would've been a full stop out.

Second trade I wanted to hold but I closed 5 seconds before red news.  May want to consider in the future moving my stop up and just letting it ride on that.  Winners will be much bigger than losers I believe.  Slippage isn't too bad on ES.

Lastly a losing A1.

All well, -2 isn't a disaster.  Tomorrow's another day.

Stats:
Net Pips: -2
Trades:  3
Winning Trades: 1
Ticks/Trade:  -.66
Win %:  33%  

17 October 2012

Good trade set up, didn't work out.

These things happen.

Stats:
Net Pips: -5
Trades:  1
Winning Trades: 0
Ticks/Trade:  -5
Win %:  0%  

16 October 2012

Got to trading a bit early, saw a great B1 setup right off a market profile level I had.

It initially didn't fill me, so I moved it one tick up and it filled.  Not sure if I should be able to do that or not, but something to consider if I miss the initial fill.

Second trade came along and I finally got a win.

All in all quick day, and that's the way I like it.

7 ticks isn't a whole lot now, but it's about consistency.  ES can probably handle 100 contracts, which would be a pretty damn good day.

Anyone out there have any experience getting fills with 10+ contracts on ES?  I'd definitely like to talk to you.

Stats:
Net Ticks: +7
Trades:  2
Winning Trades: 2
Ticks/Trade:  +3.5
Win %: 100% 

15 October 2012

Pretty quick day today, took an A1 trade off of a previous POC and important area.

Tried to get long on a B1 trade but it didn't fill. It just took off for what would've been a big win..

As of now I've been having my limit to be triggered right at the renko close, so I can have a 5 tick stop which puts that stop at the previous swing +1 tick.

The way my software works is it waits for the renko to close then places the limit automatically for me.  So if the price only touches that area once then hauls off, I don't get filled.

So I have two options:
- Continue to miss out on big trades
or
- Change my stop to -6 and take a limit a tick away from the close.

Does anyone out there know of a better way to do this?

I also need to figure out if I want to change to taking different TP's with half of my position.  The issue I had with this before was it would often neuter my winners because the price would have to go much further to get the same number of ticks.  On the other hand, JMF3,another guy I trade with has been doing it and getting much bigger wins.

Anyway, today was completely oil-less and I have to admit I liked it.

Stats:
Net Ticks: +7
Trades:  1
Winning Trades: 1
Ticks/Trade:  +7
Win %: 100% 

12 October 2012

Not a good start in oil.

Traded profits.  ES behaved fantastically and saved the day.

I'm still eyeballing you, oil, you're on probation.

Made up for yesterday's loss and more.

Equity curve for the first half of the month is looking pretty sick.

Stats:
Net Ticks: +5.5
Trades:  4
Winning Trades: 2
Ticks/Trade:  +1.37
Win %: 50% 

11 October 2012

*sigh*

Super lame day.

Market just didn't want to cooperate.  This should've been a winning day, but for the last ES trade I tried to enter, the limit didn't get filled.

I'd love to know how to get filled at the renko close more consistently.

Anyways, just one of those days I suppose.  -2.2 isn't a bad day for a loser at all.

Checked my stats since the beginning of the month:
Average Winning Day: +14.3 ticks
Average Losing Day: -6 ticks

Not bad at all.

Stats:
Net Pips: -2.2
Trades:  5
Winning Trades: 3
Ticks/Trade:  -.44
Win %:  60%   

10 October 2012

Day started off with an oil loss.  I should've waited until it made a lower high. I got impatient and just jumped in.

Next two trades were winners, putting me BE after commissions on oil, and up on ES.

I still like ES more, and I might only trade that in the future, we'll see.  I'm collecting stats on both for the rest of the month then I'll make my decision then if oil stays.

Stats:
Net Ticks: +7
Trades:  3
Winning Trades: 3
Ticks/Trade:  +3.5
Win %: 66% 

09 October 2012

Today was rather frustrating.  The first two trades I took got into good profit, but touched my target and didn't fill, then reversed completely.

I need to learn to close early when it's obvious that it's turning back.  I knew it was turning around but I stubbornly held anyway.


The last two trades I took profits quick and kept it.

All four trades were B1 reversals at big market profile levels.  I think this is the setup I need to focus on.

Anyway, should've been much more, but meh still a good day.

Stats:
Net Ticks: +12
Trades:  4
Winning Trades: 4
Ticks/Trade:  +3
Win %: 100% 

08 October 2012

Two trades, two winners today.

Both were B1 reversals at key S/R levels.

On the ES trade I wasn't filled intially, but I held the limit and it came back like 8 bars later to hit the limit then keep going.  I'm not sure if that's a good idea or not.  I'm going to keep an eye on it.  Probably best to wait 2-3 bars max for the fill then cancel and wait for next setup.

No need to tempt fate today, I'm done.

Stats:
Net Ticks: +21.5
Trades:  2
Winning Trades: 2
Ticks/Trade:  +10.75
Win %: 100% 

05 October 2012

Today I made a few bad trades, and far more trades than I like to make.

I'd like to take a max of 2-3, situation dependent.

I need to not put too much into the lines I draw.

I should've recognized that all the movement prior to me trading was from a news release and can't be counted as reliable information.  I kept trying to short an area and got impatient, taking sub-par setups.

All well, I guess that's the difference in ES:  A disasterous day here is only -8 ticks.

Off to the weekend, monday starts a new week.  I'm still massively up on ES.

Stats:
Net Pips: -8
Trades:  5
Winning Trades: 2
Ticks/Trade:  -1.6
Win %:  40%   


And I'm not sure if that top yellow line is anything at all.

04 October 2012

Another day just trading ES.

Took one trade, got my nut, and was done.

I don't think I need more than a trade or two a day.  I'd rather work on getting a consistent 5-15 ticks a day and increase my position size with time.

Been working to incorporate market profile into my trading, and it's really been helping to identify important levels.  Today was a super obvious example of that.

Stats:
Net Pips: +7
Trades:  1
Winning Trades: 1
Ticks/Trade:  +7
Win %: 100% 

03 October 2012

Good day today, only traded ES.

Oil was straight down all day but I didn't feel comfortable shorting it.

I'm starting to think I may want to only trade ES.

Stats:
Net Pips: +12
Trades:  4
Winning Trades: 3
Ticks/Trade:  +3
Win %: 75%  

02 October 2012

Crappy day today, oil didn't want to behave, but ES saved me and made it only a moderate loser.

Stats:
Net Pips: -5.75
Trades:  3
Winning Trades: 1
Ticks/Trade:  -1.92
Win %:  33%   

01 October 2012

I'm back.. Again..

Been pretty busy lately setting up the new house and being on vacation and what not.  Now I've got my rig setup again and it's time to get some trading done.

Little different look of my charts, but nothing fundamentally different.

I added identifier codes so that I can label trades according to my trade plan and coordinate with another trading friend.

I'll describe these in detail at some point in the future.

Basically:
A1 - Trend change continuation long
A2 - Regular continuation long
B1 - Double top / Double bottom reversal

I've moved down to trading 1 contract.  Not only was 2 a bit too high for my experience level, I also found it neutered a lot of winners.
I've also moved my stop down to 8 ticks.  Not sure if that's too small, but all I know was 15 was far too big, my R:R sucked.

Stats:
Net Pips: +20
Trades:  2
Winning Trades: 2
Ticks/Trade:  +10
Win %: 100%