21 December 2012

Still trading every day, but I've moved my blog over to a private forum that me and a few guys created.  I know just about nobody reads this anyway.

I'll update from time to time.

Stats:
Net Ticks: +34
Trades:  3
Winning Trades: 3
Ticks/Trade:  +11.3
Win %: 100% 

29 November 2012

Back posting.  Little bit of shifting around.  I'm trying to incorporate VSA into my trading.

I'm doing short term trading in futures on some days, and longer term trades in forex on others.

I'm also trying to be a little more flexible on what constitutes a renko entry.

Stats:
Net Ticks: +81
Trades:  4
Winning Trades: 3
Ticks/Trade:  +20.3
Win %: 75% 

13 November 2012

Bleh.

Crap day.

Things happen.

Stats:
Net Ticks: -14
Trades:  2
Winning Trades: 0
Ticks/Trade:  -7
Win %:  0%  

09 November 2012

Great day today.

First two trades got a little neutered, but ended up a great day.

Stats:
Net Ticks: +19
Trades:  3
Winning Trades: 3
Ticks/Trade:  +6.3
Win %: 100%

And the stats for November, since I've started splitting contracts.  Let's see if it holds up.

08 November 2012

Kind of changing the charts/colors around a bit, but nothing has changed.  The 15m just wasn't providing me real time information that I need.  I need a small, time based chart to get a good feel for momentum.  I switch that chart around between 3, 5, 15, and 1m.  

Not a bad day.

Stats:
Net Ticks: +9
Trades:  4
Winning Trades: 2
Ticks/Trade:  +4.5
Win %: 50%

07 November 2012

Well wow...

I'm actually pretty embarassed to post these charts.  This was one of the strongest down trends I've ever seen, and I had the balls to take 3 longs...

I have a serious problem:  On big trending markets I always feel like it's about to end.  I will watch 20 perfect short setups go by, and will do one of the following:

- Jump in on the 21st short and it will be a loser
or
- Try to go long, and it will be a loser, because it's a down market, dummy.

I think a lot of it has to do with fear.  I need to be less fearful so I can take some of those first 20 trades to get in before the trend ends.

Also, I completely screwed myself on just about all of my winning trades.. I didn't hold any of them, and even did some BS "reduce my risk" thing where I take out my first contract at 0 or +1.  This could've been a profitable day.

All well, you live and learn.  Only down on commissions today.  My friends killed today though.

Stats:
Net Ticks: 0
Trades:  7
Winning Trades: 5
Ticks/Trade:  0
Win %: 71%

06 November 2012

Slow day today.

Second day of split contracts, worked out well today.  Definitely made what would've been a BE trade on ES into a small winner.

The 6E trade took FOREVER.  I was in it for 30 minutes and decided to just kill it.  Not 30 seconds after I do it skyrockets.  FML

All well, profitable day.

Stats:
Net Ticks: +8
Trades:  2
Winning Trades: 2
Ticks/Trade:  +4
Win %: 100%

05 November 2012

After the first two trades today I switched to trying split contracts, where I close half at a certain point, then try to hold the second for longer.

Worked well today, let's see how well it'll work over time.

Re-entered twice on one setup, which is too much, and against my rules, but it turned out okay this time.

Stats:
Net Ticks: +13
Trades:  6
Winning Trades: 5
Ticks/Trade:  +2.17
Win %: %83

(Used hand placed arrows because a bug in Ninja made the automatic arrows line up with the x axis correctly)

October Stat-A-Palooza

First half of the month was stellar.

Second half was giving profits back and forth, and ended up negative for the last 2 weeks.

I guess I should be happy that I at least ended the month profitable.  Tomorrow starts a new month and a clean slate.

Stats:
Net Ticks (Pre-Commission): +41
Net Ticks (Post-Commission): +27
Profits Lost to Commission: 34%
Trades:  40
Winning Trades: 17
BE Trades: 7
Ticks/Trade:  +1.03
Win %: 60%

Wow... Commissions absolutely destroyed my bottom line.   The first half of the month I had a 75% hit rate; that dropped 15% in the second half.

As you can see my equity curve made a double top.  As one of my friends pointed out, time to "short" me.

Stats... (Note: these numbers are in "points" which on ES is 4 ticks.  So multiply everything by 4)

Good start to the month, bad end.

It seems like any trading past 1030 is unprofitable for me.  This is definitely something I need to keep an eye on.

Weekly net profit as it plummeted.

31 October 2012

Well, it's been a while since I was able to trade.  Thursday I was at an appointment, Friday I didn't find any good trades, and Monday and Tuesday the markets were closed for the storm.

Today was a sh*t day.

I'm following my plan, and my entries, but it didn't work out today.  One winner.  Just couldn't catch a break.

Stats:
Net Pips: -6
Trades:  4
Winning Trades: 1
Ticks/Trade:  -1.5
Win %:  25%  

25th / 26th October 2012

The 25th I had an afternoon appointment so I didn't trade.

The 26th I just couldn't find a good entry that I liked on ES.

Time for the weekend.

24 October 2012

Started with a small loser, than a decent winner.

Should've called it a day there, had two consecutive losses after that.  The A2 I was jumping in WAY too late on the down trend.  The A0 I was more trying to "win back my money".

All well, not a catastrophic loss.

Stats:
Net Pips: -6
Trades:  4
Winning Trades: 1
Ticks/Trade:  -1.5
Win %:  25%  

23 October 2012

Brought up the charts to see ES had been in free-fall all night.  We're in outer space now so market profile won't be helpful.

Momentum was still down, so looked to take mostly shorts.

Today brought me back up into new equity highs for the month.  Made up for those losing days last week.

Stats:
Net Ticks: +6
Trades:  2
Winning Trades: 2
Ticks/Trade:  +3
Win %: 100%

22 October 2012

First winning day after a losing streak and it was a good one!

Almost got stopped out on both trades, but it worked out in the end.

I need to try to get more winning days this size instead of +6, that way when the losing days come and I hit my daily stop loss limit of -10, it's not so devastating.

Stats:
Net Ticks: +12
Trades:  2
Winning Trades: 2
Ticks/Trade:  +6
Win %: 100% 

19 October 2012

Well, worst day of the month.

Little bit of a losing streak.  I'm up on the month overall.

I don't think I'm doing anything differently, I think it's just a bad time.

Time for the weekend, enjoy.

Stats:
Net Pips: -10
Trades:  2
Winning Trades: 0
Ticks/Trade:  -5
Win %:  0%  

18 October 2012

Another small losing day.

First trade just didn't work out, good thing I moved my stop, would've been a full stop out.

Second trade I wanted to hold but I closed 5 seconds before red news.  May want to consider in the future moving my stop up and just letting it ride on that.  Winners will be much bigger than losers I believe.  Slippage isn't too bad on ES.

Lastly a losing A1.

All well, -2 isn't a disaster.  Tomorrow's another day.

Stats:
Net Pips: -2
Trades:  3
Winning Trades: 1
Ticks/Trade:  -.66
Win %:  33%  

17 October 2012

Good trade set up, didn't work out.

These things happen.

Stats:
Net Pips: -5
Trades:  1
Winning Trades: 0
Ticks/Trade:  -5
Win %:  0%  

16 October 2012

Got to trading a bit early, saw a great B1 setup right off a market profile level I had.

It initially didn't fill me, so I moved it one tick up and it filled.  Not sure if I should be able to do that or not, but something to consider if I miss the initial fill.

Second trade came along and I finally got a win.

All in all quick day, and that's the way I like it.

7 ticks isn't a whole lot now, but it's about consistency.  ES can probably handle 100 contracts, which would be a pretty damn good day.

Anyone out there have any experience getting fills with 10+ contracts on ES?  I'd definitely like to talk to you.

Stats:
Net Ticks: +7
Trades:  2
Winning Trades: 2
Ticks/Trade:  +3.5
Win %: 100% 

15 October 2012

Pretty quick day today, took an A1 trade off of a previous POC and important area.

Tried to get long on a B1 trade but it didn't fill. It just took off for what would've been a big win..

As of now I've been having my limit to be triggered right at the renko close, so I can have a 5 tick stop which puts that stop at the previous swing +1 tick.

The way my software works is it waits for the renko to close then places the limit automatically for me.  So if the price only touches that area once then hauls off, I don't get filled.

So I have two options:
- Continue to miss out on big trades
or
- Change my stop to -6 and take a limit a tick away from the close.

Does anyone out there know of a better way to do this?

I also need to figure out if I want to change to taking different TP's with half of my position.  The issue I had with this before was it would often neuter my winners because the price would have to go much further to get the same number of ticks.  On the other hand, JMF3,another guy I trade with has been doing it and getting much bigger wins.

Anyway, today was completely oil-less and I have to admit I liked it.

Stats:
Net Ticks: +7
Trades:  1
Winning Trades: 1
Ticks/Trade:  +7
Win %: 100% 

12 October 2012

Not a good start in oil.

Traded profits.  ES behaved fantastically and saved the day.

I'm still eyeballing you, oil, you're on probation.

Made up for yesterday's loss and more.

Equity curve for the first half of the month is looking pretty sick.

Stats:
Net Ticks: +5.5
Trades:  4
Winning Trades: 2
Ticks/Trade:  +1.37
Win %: 50% 

11 October 2012

*sigh*

Super lame day.

Market just didn't want to cooperate.  This should've been a winning day, but for the last ES trade I tried to enter, the limit didn't get filled.

I'd love to know how to get filled at the renko close more consistently.

Anyways, just one of those days I suppose.  -2.2 isn't a bad day for a loser at all.

Checked my stats since the beginning of the month:
Average Winning Day: +14.3 ticks
Average Losing Day: -6 ticks

Not bad at all.

Stats:
Net Pips: -2.2
Trades:  5
Winning Trades: 3
Ticks/Trade:  -.44
Win %:  60%   

10 October 2012

Day started off with an oil loss.  I should've waited until it made a lower high. I got impatient and just jumped in.

Next two trades were winners, putting me BE after commissions on oil, and up on ES.

I still like ES more, and I might only trade that in the future, we'll see.  I'm collecting stats on both for the rest of the month then I'll make my decision then if oil stays.

Stats:
Net Ticks: +7
Trades:  3
Winning Trades: 3
Ticks/Trade:  +3.5
Win %: 66% 

09 October 2012

Today was rather frustrating.  The first two trades I took got into good profit, but touched my target and didn't fill, then reversed completely.

I need to learn to close early when it's obvious that it's turning back.  I knew it was turning around but I stubbornly held anyway.


The last two trades I took profits quick and kept it.

All four trades were B1 reversals at big market profile levels.  I think this is the setup I need to focus on.

Anyway, should've been much more, but meh still a good day.

Stats:
Net Ticks: +12
Trades:  4
Winning Trades: 4
Ticks/Trade:  +3
Win %: 100%